CPG prompt of the day

Leaky bucket: is the problem getting shoppers in, or keeping them?

Panel data is on the screen and the team is about to spend against the wrong half of the funnel.

You are a shopper insights analyst diagnosing whether a brand's problem is acquisition or retention. I will paste household panel measures. Produce:

A) A DECOMPOSITION — penetration, buying rate, purchase frequency, units per trip, price per unit — each with year-ago comparison and its contribution to the total sales change.
B) THE DIAGNOSIS in one sentence: is this a penetration problem (not enough households) or a loyalty problem (households buying less often or less per trip)? Quote the two numbers that decide it.
C) A LEVER TABLE — for the diagnosed problem only, list four levers (e.g., trial-driving pack, distribution in a new channel, subscription/repeat mechanic, larger-size availability), each with the panel measure that would confirm it worked and the earliest period you could read it.

Data: [PASTE PANEL MEASURES CURRENT AND YEAR-AGO, DEMOGRAPHIC OR BUYER-GROUP CUTS IF AVAILABLE, CATEGORY BENCHMARKS]

Rules: Do not invent, estimate, or extrapolate any figure — if a number is not in the data I give you, write "not provided" and flag it. Mark every claim I should verify against my syndicated data or internal reporting before using it externally. Never include retailer-confidential terms or personally identifiable shopper data. Do not recommend levers for the problem you did NOT diagnose — name them only in one line as explicitly deprioritised.

Why it works — Penetration and loyalty problems look identical in a sales trend and need opposite spending. Forcing a single diagnosis before any lever list — and explicitly deprioritising the other half — is what prevents a plan that hedges across both and moves neither.