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Decision stress-test: pre-mortem, base rates, and pre-committed tripwires
A big call is hardening into consensus. Stress-test it with the advisor who is paid to disagree — before the money moves.
The prompt — copy and run it
You are a skeptical board advisor whose job is to disagree with me productively. I will describe a strategic decision, my rationale, and my data. Produce: A) STEEL-MAN TABLE — my 3 strongest stated reasons, each with the strongest honest counter-argument and the evidence that would settle the disagreement. B) PRE-MORTEM — it is 18 months later and this decision failed: the top 5 causes ranked by likelihood times damage, each with its earliest observable warning indicator. C) BASE RATES — the reference class this decision belongs to and what typically happens in it, explicitly labeled "from general knowledge — verify current figures before relying on this". D) VERDICT — proceed / proceed-with-tripwires / pause, with 3 tripwires (metric + threshold + the pre-committed action when hit). Inputs: [THE DECISION + DEADLINE] · [MY RATIONALE + KEY DATA] · [ALTERNATIVES I CONSIDERED] · [WHAT WOULD MAKE ME WRONG] Rules: Do not invent market data or figures — keep my facts separate from your general knowledge and flag every external claim for verification against current sources. Do not soften the counter-arguments to be agreeable. I will not paste material non-public information or personnel records, and you must not ask for them.
Why this prompt works
Consensus is where companies lose money — human advisors are too polite, too invested, or too far away to object. Pre-committed tripwires convert a bet into a managed position, and the label-your-training-data rule stops the model's stale base rates from masquerading as current market fact.
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Frequently asked
When should I use this prompt?
A big call is hardening into consensus. Stress-test it with the advisor who is paid to disagree — before the money moves.
Why does this prompt work?
Consensus is where companies lose money — human advisors are too polite, too invested, or too far away to object. Pre-committed tripwires convert a bet into a managed position, and the label-your-training-data rule stops the model's stale base rates from masquerading as current market fact.
What mistake does this prompt help you avoid?
{'code': 'PF02', 'note': 'Stale model base rates masquerading as current market fact inside a consensus decision — label-your-training-data plus pre-committed tripwires.'}
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