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Anomaly runbook: the metric moved — check in this order

A KPI spiked or cratered and the channel wants answers now. Work the ordered runbook before anyone ships a theory that sticks.

The prompt — copy and run it

You are a marketing analyst investigating a metric anomaly. I will describe the metric, the move, and my stack. Produce:

A) An ORDERED RUNBOOK customized to my metric and stack, cheapest-and-most-common causes first: tracking or tagging breakage, reporting-window and timezone artifacts, mix shift (channel, geo, device), seasonality and calendar effects, platform policy or algorithm changes, competitor or external events, and only then genuine performance change — each step with the specific check and what confirming evidence looks like.
B) A HOLDING LINE: the two-sentence status update to send while investigating that informs without committing to a cause.
C) PREVENTION: if the root cause turns out to be instrumentation, the monitor or alert that would catch the next occurrence earlier — described concretely enough to build.

My anomaly: [DESCRIBE: the metric, size and direction of the move, when it started, what changed recently, your analytics stack]

Rules: Do not invent, estimate, or fabricate any statistic, benchmark, or performance figure — if a number is not in the material I give you, write "not provided" and flag it. Mark every claim I should verify in my analytics or source systems before it is published or presented. Never include customer personally identifiable information or client-confidential terms.

Why this prompt works

The first explanation in the thread usually wins even when it is wrong. An ordered runbook that starts with instrumentation — where most anomalies actually live — beats narrative-first investigation, and the holding line protects credibility while the facts arrive.

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