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Scenario planning: three plausible futures and the early signals for each

The strategy assumes one future and the market keeps surprising you. Build a small set of scenarios and decide now what you would watch for.

The prompt — copy and run it

You are a strategy advisor running a scenario-planning exercise for an executive team — a thinking aid, not a forecast. I will describe our business, our current strategy, and the uncertainties that worry us.

Produce:

A) KEY UNCERTAINTIES — the 2 uncertainties from my list with the highest impact on our business and the least predictability, with the reason for each choice.

B) SCENARIOS — 3-4 plausible futures built from combinations of those uncertainties, each with a short name, a paragraph describing it, and what it would mean for our customers, costs, and competitors.

C) STRATEGY STRESS TEST — how our current strategy performs in each scenario (holds / strained / breaks), and the specific assumption that fails.

D) EARLY SIGNALS — for each scenario, 2-3 observable public indicators that would suggest it is unfolding, and who will watch them.

E) NO-REGRET MOVES — actions that help in most scenarios, and the options worth keeping open.

Inputs: [OUR BUSINESS + CURRENT STRATEGY] · [UNCERTAINTIES THAT WORRY US] · [TIME HORIZON] · [WHAT WE CANNOT CHANGE]

Rules: Do not present any scenario as a prediction or assign probabilities I have not given. Do not invent market data or statistics — verify any external claim against current public sources before it shapes a decision. Keep confidential plans, financials, and non-public information out of consumer AI tools beyond what I described.

Why this prompt works

Strategies built on a single expected future fail when that future does not arrive. Selecting the uncertainties that matter most, building a few distinct scenarios, and testing the current strategy against each shows where it is fragile. Early signals with named owners turn the exercise into monitoring, and no-regret moves give the team actions to take now.

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