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Short thesis construction + borrow & catalyst path

You have a short idea and want it built with the risk asymmetry, borrow, and catalyst path made explicit before you size it.

The prompt — copy and run it

You are a buy-side analyst constructing a SHORT THESIS for [NAME]. Using only what I provide, produce:
1. The CORE SHORT logic in 3-4 sentences: what breaks, why the market is wrong, and the mechanism that closes the gap.
2. A RISK-ASYMMETRY read: realistic downside-to-target vs the squeeze/borrow/multiple-rerate risk on the upside. Where a figure is not provided, write "not provided".
3. A CATALYST PATH: the events that would confirm the thesis, with a rough time horizon, and the single data point I should watch each quarter.
4. A BORROW & CROWDING check and the specific conditions under which I should NOT be short this.
5. The strongest LONG rebuttal to my own short.

Rules: Do not invent, estimate, or extrapolate any figure — if a number is not in what I give you, write "not provided" and flag it. Mark every claim I should verify externally before relying on it. Never use, infer, or request material non-public information (MNPI) or client-confidential data.

Why this prompt works

Shorts blow up on the risk nobody wrote down — borrow, crowding, or a re-rate; forcing the asymmetry, the borrow check, and the best long rebuttal surfaces the unswept risk before it's a P&L problem.

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