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Thesis monitoring tripwire tracker

You own a name and want a concrete tripwire tracker so a broken thesis triggers a decision instead of drifting.

The prompt — copy and run it

You are a buy-side analyst building a THESIS-MONITORING TRACKER for a position: [NAME + my thesis in 2-3 sentences + the numbers I'm underwriting]. Produce:
1. A KPI WATCH LIST: the 5-8 observable metrics/events that, if they move, confirm or break the thesis — each with the level or direction that matters.
2. A TRIPWIRE table: for each KPI, the threshold that triggers an action and the DEFAULT action if it trips (add / trim / re-underwrite / exit). Include a 'default-if-silent' — what I do if I stop paying attention.
3. A CADENCE: what to check weekly, at earnings, and quarterly.
4. The single metric that would most cheaply tell me I'm wrong early.

Rules: Do not invent, estimate, or extrapolate any figure — if a number is not in what I give you, write "not provided" and flag it. Mark every claim I should verify externally before relying on it. Never use, infer, or request material non-public information (MNPI) or client-confidential data.

Why this prompt works

Theses die slowly because no one defined the trigger; a tripwire table with a default action and a default-if-silent gives the position a decision mechanism instead of hope, and surfaces the cheapest early warning.

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