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Three-statement driver interrogation + model sanity-check

You have a working model (or a target's historicals) and want a fast, structured challenge of the assumptions before it goes to a VP or PM.

The prompt — copy and run it

You are a skeptical senior analyst reviewing a three-statement model. I will paste the key financials and my forecast assumptions. Do the following, in this order:

1) Restate, in a TABLE, the operating drivers you infer from the historicals (revenue growth, gross margin, EBIT margin, capex % of sales, NWC as % of sales, cash conversion). Flag any that look internally inconsistent.
2) Interrogate my forward assumptions line by line. For each, tell me whether it is aggressive, conservative, or in-line versus the historical trend and typical sector ranges, and WHY. Ask me the 5 questions a VP would ask before signing off.
3) Build the implied bridge from this year's EBITDA to the terminal-year EBITDA and tell me what share of the growth is volume, price, margin, or acquisition.
4) List the 3 assumptions the valuation is MOST sensitive to and the ones that are cosmetic.
5) Give me a one-paragraph 'what would have to be true' summary I could defend in a model review.

Do not invent numbers. If something is missing, ask for it. Here are the financials and assumptions:
[PASTE HISTORICALS + YOUR ASSUMPTIONS]

Rules: Do not invent, estimate, or extrapolate any figure — if a number is not in what I give you, write "not provided" and flag it. Mark every claim I should verify externally before relying on it. Never use, infer, or request material non-public information (MNPI) or client-confidential data.

Why this prompt works

Turns the model review from a formatting pass into an assumptions stress-test, and pre-empts the exact questions a VP/PM will ask. The 'do not invent numbers / ask if missing' guardrail keeps the model honest.

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