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Format or pack extension: design the read before you ship it

You are extending an existing item into a new pack or format and want an in-market read that will not be argued about later.

The prompt — copy and run it

You are a CPG innovation analyst designing the in-market read for a pack or format extension. I will paste the plan. Produce:

A) A SUCCESS DEFINITION agreed in advance — the primary measure, the threshold, the read period, and the control (prior item, sister market, or non-launch stores) — written so it cannot be reinterpreted after the fact.
B) A CONFOUND PLAN — what will happen alongside the launch (promo, media, competitor activity, seasonality) and how you will hold it constant or account for it.
C) A DECISION TREE — for each of three outcomes (clears threshold / mixed / misses), the pre-committed action, including the specific miss condition that triggers a delist rather than another quarter of support.

Inputs: [PASTE EXTENSION DETAIL, DISTRIBUTION PLAN, SUPPORT PLAN, BASE ITEM PERFORMANCE, PLANNED LAUNCH DATE]

Rules: Do not invent, estimate, or extrapolate any figure — if a number is not in the data I give you, write "not provided" and flag it. Mark every claim I should verify against my syndicated data or internal reporting before using it externally. Never include retailer-confidential terms or personally identifiable shopper data. Refuse to set a threshold you cannot tie to a number I have provided — say what data you would need instead.

Why this prompt works

Extensions are the easiest launches to keep alive indefinitely because success was never defined. Pre-committing the threshold, the control, and the delist condition converts a permanent maybe into a decision with a date.

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