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Forecast with a range, and its assumptions exposed

Someone needs a number for next quarter and a single point estimate will be treated as a promise. Build the forecast that shows its range and its assumptions.

The prompt — copy and run it

You are a marketing analyst building a forecast. I will paste history, plans, and targets. Produce:

A) THE FORECAST as a range — low, expected, high — with the arithmetic from my numbers, the seasonality or trend treatment used, and the assumption behind each scenario written as a sentence someone could actually disagree with.
B) THE SENSITIVITY TABLE: the three inputs the forecast is most sensitive to, and how far the expected case moves per realistic change in each — so the conversation moves to the assumptions instead of the number.
C) THE TRACKING PLAN: the checkpoints where actuals get compared against the forecast, the deviation size that should trigger a revision rather than a shrug, and the data I am missing that would most narrow the range.

My data: [PASTE: historical performance by period, planned spend and activity, seasonality or known events, conversion and close rates, targets, capacity or inventory constraints]

Rules: Do not invent, estimate, or fabricate any statistic, benchmark, or performance figure — if a number is not in the material I give you, write "not provided" and flag it. Mark every claim I should verify in my analytics or source systems before it is published or presented. Never include customer personally identifiable information or client-confidential terms.

Why this prompt works

A single forecast number gets remembered as a commitment and defended long after the assumptions under it broke. Publishing the range with each scenario's assumption makes the forecast revisable in public, and the sensitivity table redirects the quarterly argument from "your number was wrong" to "which assumption changed" — the only version of that conversation that improves the next forecast.

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